Mortgage deferral programs<\/a> being run by Canada\u2019s large banks are also set to end in the fall.<\/p>\nIn commentary published yesterday, Capital Economics\u2019 Senior Canada Economist Stephen Brown wrote that the huge sums paid out through CERB since March have seemingly offset the losses to household income suffered during the same period. This will allow for a stronger economic recovery than was previously anticipated, he wrote.<\/p>\n
But even in his relatively upbeat take, Brown said that household income is likely to still fall eventually as employment will remain lower than its pre-pandemic level even when CERB ends in September. He went on to point out that high-earners who lost jobs during the pandemic and are now receiving CERB will have certainly taken a hit to household income, which will bode poorly for the housing market.<\/p>\n
When it comes to the anticipated shift from balanced conditions to a buyer\u2019s market for Canadian real estate, Hogue predicted that the timing will be different depending on the market.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe expect the increase in supply to tip the scale in favour of buyers in many markets across Canada, some sooner than others,\u201d Hogue wrote. <\/p>\n
\u201cVancouver and other BC markets, for example, could see buyers calling the shots as early as this summer. It could take a little longer in Ontario, Quebec and parts of the Atlantic Provinces. Buyers already rule in Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nationally, Hogue predicted a seven percent decline in benchmark home prices from pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021. However, he wrote, \u201ca widespread collapse in property values is unlikely.\u201d<\/p>\n
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<\/a>Photo: James Bombales<\/em><\/p>\n