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<\/a><\/p>\nPhoto: James Bombales<\/em><\/p>\n It\u2019s become a common refrain in Canadian housing market reports published over the last two weeks: The national market, along with many of the local markets that comprise it, were set up for a strong year that would build upon the momentum established in 2019.<\/p>\n And then the coronavirus spread accelerated beyond the expectations of most people who don\u2019t possess significant expertise around infectious diseases. This has resulted in housing projections being reevaluated, reports rewritten and experts asking for patience as they assess the impact to the market and broader economy over the next few weeks.<\/p>\n\n Real estate data tracker Altus Group had its quarterly Canadian home construction report ready to publish as of two weeks ago and even ensured the requisite coronavirus-influenced projections were included. But two weeks proved to be too long a timeline for the report to continue to be relevant for the point at which we find ourselves today.<\/p>\n Altus Group opted to publish its report with a newly added and lengthy introduction that notes that the data primarily tracking where Canadian home construction activity was heading for the year is still useful to share. <\/p>\n \u201cAs we go to press, the depth and duration of the economic disruption remain very uncertain,\u201d wrote Patricia Arsenault, the editor of Altus Group\u2019s Housing Report. While she noted in the recently penned introduction that the Canadian housing market has a potential buffer with the significant cuts to interest rates initiated over the last few weeks, Arsenault said more mortgage rate declines would be required to \u201chelp offset the current economic shocks on housing starts.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cSo what might we see for Canadian housing starts this year and next? The current turmoil makes it too early to provide \u2018best estimates\u2019 but we have prepared a few initial \u2018what if\u2019 scenarios,\u201d wrote Arsenault.<\/p>\n According to Arsenault, the Altus Group team will aim to provide a more concrete \u201cbest estimates\u201d projection for Canadian housing starts by early May. <\/p>\n In the meantime, the three scenarios outlined are delineated by the severity of the demand and supply disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic. <\/p>\n The worst case scenario outlined in the report \u201cassumes more serious supply constraints in 2020, and more prolonged demand impacts. It would be more in line with the degree of adjustment during the global financial crisis in the latter 2000s.\u201d In this scenario, housing starts in Canada would fall to approximately 150,000 units over 2020, a 28 percent decline from 2019.<\/p>\n On the opposite end, a scenario with \u201cminimal\u201d disruption to supply and demand. According to Altus Group, this scenario \u201cacknowledges that housing starts in 2020 would, other things being equal, largely reflect sales \u2013 \u201cdemand\u201d \u2010 that has already occurred, given the limited extent of speculative building and inherent sales to start lags. But it also assumes that the construction industry is only slightly impacted by labour and\/or material shortages or full site shutdowns.\u201d<\/p>\n With only minimal disruption, Altus Group estimates that Canadian homebuilders would begin work on 200,000 units of housing over the year. This would be a much smaller decrease over 2019\u2019s total, though it would also still fall short of the \u201cpre-pandemic base case\u201d that Altus developed ahead of the outbreak taking hold.<\/p>\n Another important point contained in Arsenault\u2019s introduction is her team\u2019s skepticism over the claim that the post-pandemic rebound in homebuilding will be comparable to that experienced following the 2003 SARS outbreak. <\/p>\n “SARS was a very localized situation in Canada, primarily concentrated in Toronto, and with far less impacts to the broader economy. Moreover, housing starts had just started to ramp up, after a very slow decade in the 1990s,” she wrote.<\/p>\n Real estate data tracker Altus Group had its quarterly Canadian home construction report ready to publish as of two weeks ago and even ensured the requisite coronavirus-influenced projections were included.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":201432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"2020-03-24T21:28:15Z","apple_news_api_id":"2a31718a-e7e3-428a-8490-ef68492ef617","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2020-11-24T15:40:04Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AKjFxiufjQoqEkO9oSS72Fw","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":false,"apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":false,"apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"middle","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":["https:\/\/u48r14.digitalhub.com\/sections\/09b86915-7d2b-3acd-915b-b215002d01b7"],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11269],"tags":[],"coauthors":[8652],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\n