{"id":194408,"date":"2019-07-24T15:04:10","date_gmt":"2019-07-24T19:04:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/?p=194408"},"modified":"2019-07-24T15:04:10","modified_gmt":"2019-07-24T19:04:10","slug":"latest-canadian-housing-downturn-compare-past-crashes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/archives\/latest-canadian-housing-downturn-compare-past-crashes","title":{"rendered":"How does the latest Canadian housing downturn compare to past crashes?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4 id='pressboard-ad-sponsorship-tag' style='margin-bottom: 35px;'><\/h4><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/toronto-1980.jpg\" rel=\"lightbox[194408]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-194413 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/toronto-1980.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1054\" height=\"739\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Photo: <a href=\"https:\/\/gencat4.eloquent-systems.com\/webcat\/request\/Action?SystemName=City+of+Toronto+Archives&amp;UserName=wa+public&amp;Password=&amp;TemplateProcessID=6000_3355&amp;PromptID=&amp;ParamID=&amp;TemplateProcessID=6000_1051_1051&amp;PromptID=&amp;ParamID=&amp;CMD_(DetailRequest)[0]=&amp;ProcessID=6000_3363(0)&amp;KeyValues=KEY_516819\" class=\"external\" target=\"_blank\">City of Toronto Archives<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>New analysis from a leading economist puts the recent Canadian housing downturn in perspective by comparing it to previous booms and busts of the last 30 years.<\/p>\n<p>One big takeaway: the market has taken a big spill since 2017, but it\u2019s nowhere near the depths reached at the turn of the \u201880s.<\/p>\n\n<p>\u201cAgain, activity is well above the deep troughs of the early 1980s and early 1990s (when borrowing costs were well into the double digits),\u201d writes Douglas Porter, BMO\u2019s chief economist, in a note.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut recent sales activity is also a long way from the twin peaks of the 2005\u20132007 and 2015\u201317 booms,\u201d he continues.<\/p>\n<p>To reach this conclusion, Porter looks at the ratio of Canadian existing home sales totals to the labour force population for each year dating back to 1980.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/bmo-canadian-home-sales-chart.png\" rel=\"lightbox[194408]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-194410\" src=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/bmo-canadian-home-sales-chart.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"553\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Chart: BMO<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Statistics Canada tracks both employed and unemployed individuals aged 15 and up in its labour force surveys.<\/p>\n<p>Simply looking at annual sales tallies wouldn\u2019t tell the full story.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cObviously we\u2019ve had population growth over that period of time,\u201d Porter tells Livabl in a follow-up interview.<\/p>\n<p>Porter explains that the current ratio suggests that for every 100 people in the labour force, roughly two and a half would sell their homes.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s around the long-run norm for Canada over the past three decades.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s slightly higher in the US, and frankly I\u2019m not quite sure why that\u2019s the case,\u201d he admits.<\/p>\n<p>Porter conducted similar analysis for the market south of the border, instead using single-family home sales because these provided more robust data allowing for a ratio since 1970.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/us-home-sales-history.png\" rel=\"lightbox[194408]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-194414\" src=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/us-home-sales-history.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"757\" height=\"550\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Chart: BMO<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The stateside ratio suggests about three home sales per 100 people in the labour force.<\/p>\n<p>Porter notes how over the last 10 years the Canadian and US markets have differed in performance.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGenerally, Canadian housing activity has been much stronger versus its historical average, largely avoiding the deep housing trauma during the Great Recession and also witnessing a full-on boom in the middle of this decade,\u201d writers Porter in an accompanying note.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut despite that quite different experience in the past decade, both markets now find sales to be quite close to long-run norms.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id='pressboard-ad-sponsorship-msg'><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New analysis from a leading economist puts the recent Canadian housing downturn in perspective by comparing it to previous booms and busts of the last 30 years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":194413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"2019-07-24T19:04:17Z","apple_news_api_id":"61ecad1a-dc91-4cca-be23-1831328238db","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2019-07-24T19:04:19Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AYeytGtyRTMq-IxgxMoI42w","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":false,"apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":false,"apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"middle","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":["https:\/\/u48r14.digitalhub.com\/sections\/09b86915-7d2b-3acd-915b-b215002d01b7"],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11269],"tags":[],"coauthors":[8692],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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