![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/canadian-home-interest-rate.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nPhoto: Michel Rathwell\/Flickr<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n Like many other market observers, Central 1 expects the Bank of Canada will hike its influential key interest rate this year \u2014 but the credit union also presents a possible scenario that could see rates sink lower.<\/p>\n \u201cThe next Bank rate move is expected to be a quarter-point increase in late October 2019 on the expectation that oil prices have stabilized at a higher level, U.S.\u2013China trade tensions have eased and global growth has stabilized,\u201d reads the latest Central 1 Interest Rate Forecast<\/a>.<\/p>\n However, Central 1 notes that there are downside risks. \u201cA worse-case scenario \u2014 where U.S.\u2013China tensions escalate or U.S. policies cause more disruptions and its political situation worsens \u2014 would bring a rate cut scenario into play,\u201d the report continues.<\/p>\n\n Since July 2017, Canada\u2019s central bank has increased its mortgage-market influencing key rate, also known as the overnight rate, five times. The most recent hike was October, when a 25-basis-point increase brought the overnight rate to 1.75 percent.<\/p>\n The Bank of Canada\u2019s next policy announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, but no movement is expected on the rate front right now.<\/p>\n Central 1\u2019s commentary, published late last week, followed the release of a separate report in which Capital Economics predicted a rate cut<\/a> was in the cards this year.<\/p>\n