Eitel Insights<\/a>.<\/p>\nAccording to the forecast, the peak price of $1.83 million for a Greater Vancouver detached home won\u2019t be reached again for several years.<\/p>\n\n
The average has already touched that level three times \u2014 January 2016, February\/March 2016, and May 2017, says Eitel.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat signals a triple top, meaning that there is no momentum to carry that higher for the near-term future.\u201d<\/p>\n
What follows probably isn\u2019t what investors will want to hear. Eitel\u2019s analysis suggests the market will bottom out in 2020 or 2021, with the average price of a detached home sinking to about $1.4 million.<\/p>\n
The length of the cooling period is something Eitel attributes to the expanded stress testing that was introduced at the beginning of the year for uninsured mortgage applicants. He sees it as necessary because the market had already topped before it came into effect in January.<\/p>\n
Eitel also figures the stress test will be a thorn in the side for some buyers who purchased detached properties at the market\u2019s height. When their five-year mortgages come up for renewal, they may have difficulty re-qualifying because of the stress test.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you\u2019re over-leveraged you can\u2019t get your mortgage requalified because the stress test is in place\u2026 you are going to be in foreclosure procedures,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n
What kind of uptick in foreclosures is Eitel predicting? \u201cPut it this way, I would anticipate that at least a quarter of the properties bought in 2016.\u201d<\/p>\n
That in turn is expected to bring out investors looking for deals on foreclosed homes. \u201cWhen foreclosures come, investors naturally start coming,\u201d says Eitel.<\/p>\n
Cue the next runup, which Eitel sees lifting the average price of a Vancouver house to $2.8 million by 2028 following a parabolic five-year runup.<\/p>\n
Eitel doesn\u2019t see the previous high of $1.83 million as being a barrier to future price growth at all. \u201cWe are not really going to stop at that price because we\u2019ve spent so much time up here,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n
Limited supply, already an issue in the market today, would cause prices to swell further. \u201cThe market will be robust again,\u201d says Eitel. \u201cThere\u2019s a lot of factors that are still upcoming, but I believe by 2028 we\u2019ll see a $2.8-million purchase price, and then that will basically be the top of the next roll over,\u201d he continues, adding, \u201cAnd then we\u2019ll grow again.\u201d<\/p>\n
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