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<\/a><\/p>\nPhoto: James Bombales<\/em><\/p>\n August saw housing markets across Canada post year-over-year home prices gains, in what many are calling the end of a policy-induced cooling period. But will the jump in activity carry on into the fall? One economist says yes.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s official: the Toronto benchmark price is no longer falling on a year-over-year basis. It returned to positive territory in August \u2014 more or less on cue \u2014 marking an end to a correction that lasted five months,\u201d writes RBC senior economist Robert Hogue, in a recent note.<\/p>\n\n Those hoping that the Ontario government\u2019s Fair Housing Plan and new mortgage rules would put a damper on housing activity are going to be disappointed, writes Hogue, who notes that sales have also been on the rise these past few months.<\/p>\n \u201cGreater Toronto Area resales jumped 22 per cent cumulatively in June and July (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) from decade-low levels,\u201d he writes. \u201cActivity rose further month-over-month in August though the pace moderated significantly to just 2 per cent.\u201d <\/p>\n But while Hogue predicts that prices will continue to rise, he\u2019s quick to note that they will likely do so at a modest pace, avoiding the frenzy of last spring\u2019s red-hot market.<\/p>\n \u201c[Our] view [is] that rising interest rates, the stress test and affordability issues will drain away the market\u2019s momentum in the period ahead,\u201d he writes. \u201cWe think that low single-digit (year-over-year) increases will be the norm for a while. We see little that would disrupt the current balance between demand and supply in the market.\u201d <\/p>\n