{"id":151315,"date":"2016-06-16T16:55:33","date_gmt":"2016-06-16T20:55:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/?p=151315"},"modified":"2016-06-16T17:10:09","modified_gmt":"2016-06-16T21:10:09","slug":"canadas-big-banks-latest-report-on-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/archives\/canadas-big-banks-latest-report-on-housing-market","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s how Canada\u2019s big banks reacted to the latest housing market report"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4 id='pressboard-ad-sponsorship-tag' style='margin-bottom: 35px;'><\/h4><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/housing-market-report.jpg\" rel=\"lightbox[151315]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-151316\" src=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/housing-market-report-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"housing market report\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Photo: <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/stewart\/3331444322\/in\/photolist-qZiCth-md1LQ4-9qmmHH-jqmSp2-md2tAv-oXJMqt-65owkd-buaomD-4ukqmE-AeUDji-adFSV8-8CRRw7-58nLAL-kyJYv-5GuvcX-kyJYp-kyJYx-pnjU7R-9pfRKY-p7t5bk-oYpJ7p-dB52bb-kyJYs-BFA8X5-3JwCBw-8dhPhU-ffje1x-pit1EE-oYYscJ-pAUfg8-phAxGb-5qT3k3-5J9obG-pioprW-9EAfnk-btGyQk-buaq6i-p3oX7H-oZvYix-oWe9oW-p8fEGz-8aFNTQ-5iiqYJ-6RACDA-62zmfu-a7kDA8-pekKQL-p6Afkw-d5VQjW-5stwBZ\" class=\"external\" target=\"_blank\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Stewart Butterfield\/Flickr<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After setting an all-time record for the month of April, Canadian home sales fell in May, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/2016\/06\/canadian-home-sales-edge-lower-may-demand-strong.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">reported earlier this week<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Month-over-month, residential real estate transactions sank 2.8 per cent, with sales activity falling in about 70 per cent of all Canadian markets. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Interestingly, lack of demand wasn\u2019t the main cause of the overall decline. According to Gregory Klump, the CREA\u2019s chief economist, inventory was the bigger factor in many areas. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cMany of the housing markets in BC and Ontario that led the monthly decline in national sales are also places where months of inventory have fallen to all-time lows,\u201d he said, adding, \u201c[t]his suggests a lack of supply may be starting to rein in sales amid a continuation of strong housing demand.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That tightness pushed the benchmark price of a Canadian home up by 12.5 per cent compared to May 2015, to $550,000. The country\u2019s sales-to-new listings ratio also increased, hitting 64.8 per cent \u2014 anything above 60 per cent is indicative of a sellers\u2019 market. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We took a look at how three of Canada\u2019s major banks reacted to the CREA data. Find out where their economists stand on the present and future of the country\u2019s housing market. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3>TD Bank<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Economist Diana Petramala <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.td.com\/document\/PDF\/economics\/comment\/CanadianExistingHomeSales_May2016.pdf\" class=\"external\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">wrote<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that while Canada\u2019s hottest housing markets \u2014 BC and Ontario \u2014 also have the best labour market outperformance in the country, employment gains aren\u2019t the only factor driving the rapid housing price increases the two provinces have seen. As a result, market activity in those provinces may end up being unsustainable.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even so, Canadian housing prices are rising at a double-digit pace this year, with gains concentrated in BC and Ontario. <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the current pace of Canadian housing demand is \u201cunsustainable,\u201d there doesn\u2019t appear to be any way to curb it in the short term. Record-low mortgage rates are part of the issue, and next year rising rates may reduce demand somewhat. <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Foreign investment is a wild card, wrote Petramala, and \u201cadds a significant layer of uncertainty around demand dynamics for Canadian housing.\u201d Part of that uncertainty stems from the fact that it\u2019s tough to predict what the recent appreciation of the Canadian dollar could mean for foreign investment.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Royal Bank of Canada<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Senior economist Robert Hogue <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.rbc.com\/economics\/economic-reports\/pdf\/canadian-housing\/housespecial-jun16.pdf\" class=\"external\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">said<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the fall in home sales in May should be viewed as a positive development for the Canadian housing market, describing it as a \u201cwelcome tentative sign that that the heat may be on its way to a more tolerable degree\u201d in Vancouver and Toronto. <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, if the upward pressure on housing prices in those markets is to be relieved, much more cooling is necessary. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alternatively, an increase in the number of homes on the market could reduce housing prices. That scenario seems unlikely though \u2014 fewer and fewer people have been putting their homes up for sale lately, perhaps because moving has been disincentivized by poor affordability, or \u201caffordability stress.\u201d <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This affordability stress could contribute to a soft landing in the Canadian housing market. RBC has long been calling for a soft landing, but expected it to come through the demand side. <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Canadian home sales are likely to hit a record this year. RBC is calling for sales of 551,000 units, which would be an increase of 9 per cent from 2015. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Scotiabank<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Senior economist Adrienne Warren <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.gbm.scotiabank.com\/English\/bns_econ\/housingflash.pdf\" class=\"external\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">highlighted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the \u201csevere lack of listing[s]\u201d in BC and Ontario, writing that in May the number of months of supply in those provinces came to just 2.7 and 2.3, respectively. The tightness in those markets is largely responsible for Canada\u2019s elevated May sales-to-new listings ratio.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With fewer homes available to buy, home sales have slowed in BC\u2019s major markets and experienced \u201csome levelling off\u201d in the Greater Toronto Area. That suggests activity in those areas may be peaking; however, sales are likely to stay high for the time being. <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, home sales and prices are likely to remain low in Canada\u2019s oil-producing regions, but market conditions there are showing signs of stabilizing. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id='pressboard-ad-sponsorship-msg'><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One economist believes that the fall in home sales last month should be viewed as a positive development.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":151316,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":false,"apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":false,"apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11269],"tags":[],"coauthors":[10332],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ 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