![\"Toronto](\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/Toronto-condo-boom.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nPhoto: James Bombales<\/em><\/p>\n TD Economics’ analysis of the latest data on Canadian housing starts<\/a>\u00a0points to\u00a0softening in the GTA’s new construction condo market.<\/p>\n According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), housing starts in the region rose from\u00a025,041 in February to\u00a030,194 units in March, a roughly 20 per cent jump. However, TD economists\u00a0Craig Alexander and\u00a0Diana Petramala believe the spike is just a symptom of volatility, mostly due to the cold snap in February that put a freeze on new construction across the province. Overall, they argue that new home construction has been trending downward since early 2013.<\/p>\n “The current level of starts is well off the peak reached in 2012, and on a six month moving average the pace of new home construction in Toronto is hovering near 2008\/2009 recessionary levels. Housing starts are also trending below demographic fundamentals, such as household formation,” they noted in an observation published April 10th after the release of the CMHC numbers. Condos are believed to make up about 80 per cent of housing construction activity in the GTA.<\/p>\n Graph from TD Economics Observation published April 10th <\/em><\/p>\n Though starts may have slowed down compared to previous years, completions have sped up considerably, raising the spectre of condo oversupply. TD notes condo completions in the GTA were three times the historical average in both January and February 2015. And while sales remain strong, listings remain high and new condo prices have plateaued, “even on a per square foot basis.”<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n