For an industry that has spent the last few years bracing for impact, the conversation is starting to change. Zonda Urban’s Pauline Lierman is talking less about survival and more about what comes next, as the preconstruction market begins to find its footing and chart a “way forward” into 2026. The signals are subtle, the shifts uneven, but for those watching closely, the fog around economics, demand and delivery is finally starting to lift.
We expect 2026 will be a year of many shifts, but the overall theme will be “the way forward” for the preconstruction market. As of Q4-2025, I think the bottom of the market has been reached. This is not to say there will not be sites with challenges and more cancellations. However, the industry can see a better picture of the economics, particularly what could work on their proformas relative to the demand environment.
There are already signs that the GTHA has hit peak delivery of the current wave of condominium completions, which peaked just over 30,000 units at an annual clip by the end of Q3-2025. As 2026 progresses, the apartment market is going to move from an extreme high toward an unprecipitated low beyond 2027, as the market downturn has pulled at least two years’ worth of potential condominium new supply off the slate.
Rebalance will also be a theme in 2026. Right product, right buyers, meaning the heavy weighting towards investors will realign a share back towards end-user buyers once more. This would be welcome change, giving opportunity to a buyer group that has been relatively shut out of the market in the 2020-2023 market high era.
However, investors have never been fully absent from the market, including in the 1990s, it has been overall reliance on this group that has helped elongate the present downturn. Overall, my outlook is positive for 2026.
-Pauline Lierman, Zonda Urban vice-president, market research, Ontario/Quebec, Canada
