Active listings in Dallas are considerably higher than year-ago levels as of midyear, and days to sell have increased to more than two months. However, housing demand has been strong enough to boost new-home sales. By the end of 2022, new-home sales began to climb and surpass 2021 and 2022 levels. With mortgage rates headed higher, home prices will face additional headwinds.
Affordability is at or near record lows, so home builders could be seeing thinner margins as they cut prices or buy mortgage rates down. As a result, builder confidence has been souring.
Supply
Quarterly housing starts decreased 1.6% from a year ago, while the number of available vacant developed lots sits at 78,311, up 37.7% over the same quarter last year. Regarding supply/demand balance, the market area is 4.71% undersupplied.
Sales
New-home sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area increased 7.9% year over year to an annualized rate of 38,906 units in September. Existing-home closings for the 12 months ending in August posted a year-over-year decline of 26.7% to an annualized rate of 114,841 units.
Prices
The average list price for a new detached home in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington region increased 2.7% from 2022 to $499,333 in September, while the average list price for a new attached home increased 3.1% over the same period to $486,339. Homes over $550,000 experienced the most closing activity over the past year. The new-home affordability ratio for a detached house reached 34.3% in August.
Economy
TotaI nonfarm employment in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan statistical area increased 4% from the same period last year to 4,298,400 payrolls in August, with approximately 16,900 more jobs compared with the previous month. The local unemployment rate increased to 3.8% in August compared with 3.7% the prior month. August’s jobless rate is higher than it was this time last year when it stood at 3.4%. Zonda forecasts the region’s unemployment rate will finish the year at 3.9%.
Community
The current population of the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area is approximately 8,104,310 people and is projected to increase by 1.5% this year. There are approximately 3,013,870 households in the region, which is up 1.5% year over year. Forecasts show that household formation is expected to increase by an annual growth rate of 7.5% for 2028. Incomes rose by 4.4% from the previous year to $83,371.
Did you know you can access free housing data with Zonda’s Market Snapshots? Reports include new-home supply and valuation, resale listings, jobs, market forecasts, and more. Get your complimentary market snapshot for your local CBSA today.
