Canada’s housing market is inching toward a recovery, but the path forward remains tangled in low inventory, shaky consumer confidence, and shifting demographics. Top industry voices from Zonda Urban say the slowdown has run its course and buyers will return once confidence lifts and rates are accepted as the new normal. Yet even as signs of life emerge, uncertainty lingers for the 2026 outlook and the future depends on how fast the country can work through its backlog.
A recovery is going to happen. The big thing we need to do, across the country, is get through the inventory. Everything slowed down. Consumer confidence is at an all-time low. Once that starts to come back, people will get in the market again. Interest rates, I think people are now realizing they are where they are.
So, there’s a little bit of life, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty. I do think we’re going to start seeing it pick up 2026 as we go through. But it’ll be different in every market. What often gets overlooked are demographic shifts and lifestyle choices. We’re going to have 16 million senior Canadians by 2041. There’s going to be more senior Canadians than children in Canada.
We’re also returning to, lack of a better word, normalcy. Project launches and marketing campaigns weren’t ‘let’s sell the entire building in a day.’ We’re going to go back to friends and family, then VIP brokers, then a grand opening. I do worry about what will happen when 2028 comes around. There have been zero projects started as of now, and completions are going to be extremely low. We may find ourselves in a frenzied market again. But overall, I’m very positive on the market.
– Jasmine Cracknell-Young, vice president, market advisory, Zonda Urban, Toronto, Canada
