Price growth for Canadian homes didn’t let up in January, marking a third month of more drastic price increases.
According to monthly market reports released today for the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index (HPI), 2022 kicked off with a seasonally-adjusted monthly growth rate of 1.7 per cent in January, a rise from the 1.1 per cent monthly growth seen during December 2021. This hike represents three back-to-back months of “stronger price increases,” compared to the previous month.
Daren King, an economist with the National Bank of Canada, noted in the report that this larger price increase coincides with renewed robust demand in the resale market. With interest rates expected to climb again this year having already started to move up in the fall, it’s probable that borrowers who obtained advantageous rates have rushed forward to buy. This has stimulated demand and kept the upward trend of sales going over the last five months. Record-low home supply, which is at a low of 1.6 months worth, is putting property prices under pressure as well.
“Under these circumstances, it would not be surprising to see home prices continue to rise in the months to come,” wrote King. “However, with the Bank of Canada’s recent change in tone on inflation, the recent increase in mortgage rates and the additional increases anticipated in 2022, the housing market should gradually lose momentum.”
After seasonal adjustment, all 11 markets that the composite HPI analyzes reported monthly price growth. From December 2021 to January 2022, prices were up the most in Toronto, Victoria, Hamilton and Vancouver, where prices grew 2.4 per cent, 2.2 per cent, 1.9 per cent and 1.7 per cent month-to-month.
Without seasonal adjustment, the composite HPI was up 1.3 per cent monthly in January, up slightly from the 0.8 per cent growth recorded in December. Monthly, non-seasonally adjusted price growth was led by Hamilton, Toronto and Victoria, where increases of 2.1 per cent, 1.9 per cent and 1.5 per cent were noted.
On a yearly basis, the composite HPI rose 16.6 per cent, up slightly from the annual 15.5 per cent growth recorded during the previous month. Between January 2021 and January 2022, price growth was spurred by Halifax (31.7 per cent), Hamilton (25.5 per cent), Victoria (20.8 per cent) and Toronto (19.1 per cent).
Although prices were still moving up, lower-than-average annual growth was noted in the other seven metropolitan areas, including Ottawa-Gatineau (15.9 per cent), Vancouver (15.3 per cent), Montreal (15 per cent), Winnipeg (11.6 per cent), Quebec City (9.4 per cent), Calgary (8.7 per cent) and Edmonton (4.9 per cent).
For the other 18 metropolitan areas not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in each one, which ranged from 2.5 per cent in Lethbridge to 32.9 per cent in Windsor.
The Teranet–National Bank HPI is an independent representation of changes to Canadian single-family home prices between the National Bank of Canada and Teranet Inc. The HPI is calculated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data from property records of public land registries. All homes that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation. Repeat sales methodology weighs the price increase observed between two sales of the same property.
