Mortgage rates continue to hinder consumer sentiment toward the housing market. The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased 2.4 points month over month to 64.5 in September, and five of the six index components decreased compared with August. The full index is up 3.7 points year over year.
“Mortgage rates persistently over 7% appear to be deepening the malaise consumers feel about the home purchase market,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “In fact, high mortgage rates surpassed high home prices as the top reason why consumers think it’s a bad time to buy a home, a survey first. Notably, the share of consumers expressing pessimism about home buying conditions hit a new survey high in September, with 84% now indicating it’s a bad time to buy a home.”
In September, 16% of consumers reported it is a good time to buy a home, matching the all-time survey low set in 2022, according to Fannie Mae. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said it is a good time to sell a home, and 37% indicated it is a bad time to sell.
Duncan said unfavorable mortgage rates were also a top reason respondents listed for believing it is a bad time to sell a home. Many homeowners are likely unwilling to give up their mortgage rate that is significantly lower than the current rates. Additionally, he says the unwillingness to sell may be a reflection of a worry among homeowners that sale values might be “suppressed slightly” if the pool of qualified buyers is constrained by elevated mortgage rates.
The percentage of respondents who said home prices will go up in the next 12 months was 42%, while the percentage who said home prices will go down decreased to 23%. Nearly half of respondents expressed belief that mortgage rates will remain unchanged in the next 12 months.
“Consumers are not seeing much affordability relief in sight, as they continue to expect home prices to increase in the next 12 months,” Duncan. “They also indicated that their personal economic situations are showing signs of strain, including lower year-over-year household incomes and a reduced sense of job security. In our view, all of this points to home purchase affordability remaining a problem for the foreseeable future, which we forecast will keep home sales sluggish into next year.”
