Is this the bottom of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton’s (GTHA) housing market? No one wants to admit it, but the numbers reveal the stark reality of a generational low.
New homebuyers in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) are facing a market that has slowed to its weakest point in more than 30 years. According to Zonda Urban’s Q3-2025 report, sales of townhouses and condominium apartments plunged to their lowest level since the early 1990s. Only 633 sales occurred during the third quarter, including 360 townhouses and 273 condominium apartments, a wide contrast to the pandemic-era high of 6,605 apartment sales in Q3-2021.
“Out of all the major Canadian markets, the GTHA continues to fall behind its western counterparts with stronger sales in Calgary (663 sales) and Vancouver (1,202 sales). Even the smaller Ottawa market challenged the GTHA figures with 570 sales during the third quarter,” said Pauline Lierman, Zonda Urban’s vice president of market research.
Slowing Sales Signal a Changing Market
The report shows the region’s 12-month trend in sales dropping to 4,199 units, almost evenly split between apartments (1,926) and townhouses (2,273). Year-to-date, the market has recorded 1,225 apartment and 1,217 townhouse sales.
Third quarter sales were down 41 per cent for new condominium apartments and 49 per cent for townhouses compared to last year. Still, townhouse sales have outpaced condominium apartments in four of the past five quarters, reflecting a shift in buyer preference toward more space and value.
Price Cuts and Cancellations Reflect Buyer Hesitation
Developers launched nine new townhouse projects in the third quarter, mostly late in the season, selling 54 per cent of the 311 homes at an average price of $777,561. That marks a sharp drop from $1,222,535 a year ago, suggesting smaller and more affordable homes are finding traction.
At the same time, eight condominium projects were cancelled in Q3-2025, totaling 1,824 units, a single-quarter record. Year-to-date, 3,173 apartment units have been cancelled, contributing to 6,898 cancellations since January 2024. That number surpasses the 6,365 cancelled during the 2017–2018 downturn.
“Summer is not unusual for market doldrums but Q3-2025 was a watershed period. Developers were willing to pull stalled projects and increasingly slash pricing with cuts now occurring at 20 per cent of active sites. Are we at market bottom? No one wants to be the first to put that marker down; however, we feel that the cycle of delivery has hit its peak and is expected to wane considerably through 2026,” noted Lierman.
Looking Ahead: Fewer Starts, More Rentals
For the first time in over two decades, there were no condominium apartment construction starts in the GTHA during the quarter. Instead, builders shifted toward the construction of rentals, with 3,820 units getting underway.
“Our team does not expect a normal fall market to emerge. We are asking, ‘In what ways does the market come back?’ What we are seeing thus far is a tepid yet steady number of townhouse project openings and the re-emergence of boutique luxury apartment projects,” said Lierman. “The latter represents premiere small unit buildings in the Yorkville and Lawrence Park neighbourhoods with large, highly customizable floorplans and price points around $2,000 per-square-foot.”
Four of this year’s eight new condominium launches have been luxury developments averaging 58 suites each. Three launched in the third quarter, selling 20 per cent of released units at an average of $2,251 per square foot.
What Buyers Should Do Next
• Be patient but watch closely. Falling prices and stalled projects suggest the market is still finding its footing, and buyers may benefit from waiting until pricing stabilizes.
• Explore townhouses. With average prices down sharply and smaller, more affordable homes slowly entering the market, townhomes offer first-time homebuyers a chance to get a foot in the door.
• Consider completed or near-complete projects. These are less likely to face cancellation risks and may offer immediate occupancy at adjusted prices.
• Watch the luxury niche. Boutique developments in Yorkville and Lawrence Park are setting a new tone for high-end offerings, though at premium prices.
• Evaluate long-term plans. With fewer condominium starts and more build-to-rent options available, the market’s structure is changing. Buyers should make their decisions with lifestyle and investment goals in mind.
The Bottom Line
The GTHA’s new home market has hit a generational low, marked by cancelled projects, slower launches, and shifting priorities toward rentals and boutique luxury builds. While affordability has improved in some areas, the market still feels uncertain. It will take several more quarters to determine when it’s the best time for buyers to strike.
