Both the city of Toronto and the metropolitan Toronto area experienced a surge in population growth in 2022, leading the way among cities and regions in both Canada and the United States.
Recent statistical analysis from Toronto Metropolitan University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development (CUR) shows that in the 12 months ending July 1, 2022, the city of Toronto was the fastest growing central city in Canada and the United States, with 69,786 more persons added. The population growth in the city of Toronto far outpaced any U.S. central cities.
It’s not just Toronto that is booming. Canada is growing rapidly coast-to-coast. The top five fastest-growing cities in 2022 are all Canadian, surpassing growth in U.S. cities, with Calgary, Edmonton, Halifax and Ottawa following Toronto on the upward trend.
Fort Worth saw the greatest population increase in the United States, growing by 19,170 people, trailing slightly behind the surging Canadian cities.
Part of this spike in population growth in Canada is due to pandemic restrictions temporarily pausing immigration in the years prior, with an influx resuming as restrictions were lifted.
With aggressive immigration targets set by the federal government through 2025 to help stimulate the economy, population levels will continue to swell in Canada.
While lofty immigration targets are a boon to filling gaps in the workforce, particularly in fields where there are profound shortages that are expected to worsen as more workers retire, there is concern that housing supply can keep up with the increasing demand, potentially exacerbating the affordability crisis that persists in some of Canada’s metros.
Looking at population growth by metropolitan areas, metropolitan Toronto registered the second-highest population increase in 2022 in Canada and the United States, trailing the Dallas/Fort Worth region. The Vancouver area rounded out the top five, while Calgary was 11th on the list for metropolitan population growth.
None of Canada’s 41 metropolitan areas saw a population decline in 2022, whereas several U.S. metropolitans trended down, led significantly by the New York/Newark/Jersey City and Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim regions.
The top four metropolitans in the Unites States that saw population decline were consistent from 2021 to 2022, but the decline was less substantial in 2022.
There is greater influence on population levels through net internal migration in the United States, whereas it is net immigration in Canada that is more prominent.
The researchers from CUR point out the significance of the different sources of the population growth, compared between the two countries, and the potential impact on housing supply and affordability, particularly in supply-constrained Toronto and Vancouver.
With an additional influx of renters into the market through immigration, particularly in Toronto, a chain of events is set into motion. More house hunters who have been renting waiting for affordable buying opportunities to emerge are abandoning hope of buying in the city as the affordability crisis continues and are looking for alternatives farther afield.
“This puts pressure on adjacent markets, particularly in southern Ontario,” says Frank Clayton, senior researcher with CUR, emphasizing that housing affordability is no longer a big-city problem.
Furthermore, new supply to keep up with population growth is constrained to land availability and new land is scarce in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal,
“Cities such as Vancouver and Toronto have used their available land. New housing is built up, rather than out, while cities such as Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa still have greenfield land available for development of new homes, “says Clayton.
Many buyers favor low-rise housing, and are willing to move regions be able buy it. As immigration-driven population grows, demand will continue to increase in areas where this housing type is able to be built, in line with greenfield availability, suggesting that these trendlines will continue.
