Photo: James Bombales

After plenty of speculation, there seems to be a consensus among industry experts that the GTA fall market has arrived, and that it’s going to be a warm one.

Sales have been firming up over the past few months across multiple property types, as the market finally adjusts to the effects of new mortgage rules which were rolled out in January.

For a closer look at what’s happening in the market, and what the next few months have in store, Livabl has rounded up the latest industry commentary to keep you in the know.

The new home market is primed for a sales surge

GTA new home sales were sluggish in August, with just 974 homes sold. But according to one expert, there’s plenty of pent up demand in the market which will make itself known this fall.

“Pent-up demand is forming, which suggests we should see sales start to firm up this fall,” Altus Group Executive VP of data solutions Patricia Arsenault, in a statement.

So far that demand has been held back by various government regulations introduced in the last year.

“Once the market adjusts and more people start looking for homes, our region’s short supply of housing will mean that affordability will continue to be a challenge for many new home buyers,” writes BILD president and CEO David Wilkes, in a statement.

Detached homes are having a comeback

Since June, sales of $600,000 to $900,000 single-detached homes to first-time buyers have increased 22 per cent year-over-year, according to data from RE/MAX INTEGRA, Ontario-Atlantic Canada Region.

“We expect momentum to build moving into the traditional fall market, and the trend to continue throughout the remainder of the year,” writes executive VP and regional director of RE/MAX INTEGRA, Ontario-Atlantic Canada Region Christopher Alexander, in a statement. “The worst is now behind us. Pent-up demand will be a factor in the coming months, as homebuyers – many of whom delayed their purchasing plans – are entering the market.”

The luxury market is performing well

This summer, sales of residential property over $1 million and $4 million jumped 19 per cent and 34 per cent year-over-year, respectively.

“In spite of seasonal tendencies for real estate activity to slow over the summer, top-tier sales activity strengthened this July and August, reflecting a shift towards renewed seller, buyer and investor engagement, and a transition into an active fall market,” reads a new report from Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.

Strong activity will be maintained by what Sotheby’s calls “healthy levels of fresh inventory,” and a provincial economy projected to advance by 2.2 per cent in the coming quarter.

“Consumer confidence and strong economic fundamentals are expected to anchor top-tier market health to the end of the year,” reads the report.

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