For the 20th month in a row, Canadian home prices have continued to trend upward.
According to new market reports, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index (HPI) saw a 1.7 per cent seasonally-adjusted monthly increase in February, marking the 20th consecutive month of property price growth. This is down slightly from January, when the composite HPI grew 1.8 per cent month-to-month.
After seasonal adjustment, all 11 markets analyzed in the composite index reported price growth, with the highest monthly increases noted in Hamilton, Victoria and Toronto at four per cent, 2.5 per cent and two per cent. For the other 18 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) not included in the composite HPI, monthly increases from January to February were observed in 17 of them.
Kyle Dahms, an economist with the National Bank of Canada, said in the report that the recent momentum behind home price growth has been “robust.” On a three-month annualized basis, property prices registered at 20.5 per cent in February, which is a level that hasn’t been observed since the summer, he explained.
“The current surge in valuations is likely stemming from strong demand in the resale market which has been favourable towards sellers for a while,” said Dahms.
“There is also reason to think that borrowers who had locked in a lower rate are exercising that option in anticipation of higher mortgage interest rates. The widespread rise in home prices lends some credence to that thesis with prices rising in all 11 markets for a successive month,” he added.
Although tighter monetary policies may place buyers under more pressure and weaken the current wave, Dahms pointed out that Canada’s high immigration targets should make way for “a soft landing.” That number could also be significantly increased as the federal government allows in Ukrainian refugees, Dahms said. While the housing market could lose some momentum in 2022, such factors could keep fueling demand.
On a monthly basis, the composite HPI was up 1.5 per cent in February when omitting seasonal adjustment, an increase from the 1.3 per cent growth rate reported in January. Growth was spurred by Hamilton and Halifax, which reported non-seasonally adjusted monthly increases of 3.1 per cent and three per cent in February.
Without seasonal adjustment, the composite index rose 17.7 per cent between February 2021 and February 2022, up from 16.6 per cent recorded during the previous month. The increase was mostly driven by Halifax at 32.5 per cent, followed by Hamilton (27.9 per cent), Victoria (22.5 per cent) and Toronto (20.8 per cent). Annual growth was lower than average in the composite’s other seven cities, including Vancouver (16.4 per cent), Ottawa-Gatineau (16.2 per cent) and Montreal (15 per cent).
For the other 18 CMAs not calculated into the composite HPI, upward annual gains were recorded in all of them, ranging from 2.9 per cent to 35.3 per cent.
The Teranet–National Bank HPI is an independent representation of changes to Canadian single-family home prices in eleven CMAs by the National Bank of Canada and Teranet Inc. The measurement is based on tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data from property records of public land registries. Using repeat sales methodology, all homes that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation, which observes the price increase between two sales of the same property.
