Photo: Spiroview Inc. / Adobe Stock

Looking ahead to the new year, Canadians could see average home sale prices steadily rise and inter-provincial migration continue in 2022.

Today, RE/MAX Canada released its 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report, outlining some of the trends and changes we could expect for real estate come the new year.

In light of housing supply shortages, which will ultimately put pressure on prices, RE/MAX Canada predicts that there will be a 9.2 per cent increase in average residential sales prices across the country in 2022. Migration between provinces is expected to also be a key driver of buying and selling activity in many communities.

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“Based on feedback from our brokers and agents, the inter-provincial relocation trend that we began to see in the summer of 2020 still remains very strong and is expected to continue into 2022,” said Christopher Alexander, president of RE/MAX Canada.

“Less-dense cities and neighbourhoods offer buyers the prospect of greater affordability, along with liveability factors such as more space.”

Alexander added that in order for these communities to “retain these appealing qualities,” and maintain market balance, more housing supply needs to be added. Without more properties, market conditions in these regions have the potential to continue shifting.

In Ontario, market activity is expected to “remain steady,” next year, but with varying levels of price growth across the regions. Larger markets in the province could see returning immigration place pressure on supply levels and prices. Ottawa, Toronto, Mississauga and Durham Region could see average prices climb five per cent, 10 per cent, 14 per cent and seven per cent respectively in 2022.

In smaller communities such as Muskoka and Thunder Bay, the move-over trend is anticipated to help drive average sale prices up by 20 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively.

Photo: Olessia / Adobe Stock

Out west, Calgary and Edmonton saw their markets flip from balanced in 2020 to a seller’s market in 2021, which is expected to continue in 2022. This trend was caused by homebuyer demand from by inter-provincial migration from Ontario and British Columbia. Buyers looking for larger properties flocked to communities in Victoria, Nanaimo, Regina and Kelowna, a pattern that will sustain demand and price growth in 2022, RE/MAX Canada predicts.

From a price perspective, the Greater Vancouver Area, Calgary, Edmonton and Victoria could see average prices jump 5.5 per cent, 2.5 per cent, seven per cent and five per cent next year.

All of Atlantic Canada’s markets are currently in seller’s territory, which is expected to prevail in 2022 with the exception of Charlottetown and Southern Nova Scotia. Large urban communities such as Moncton, Halifax and St. John’s have experienced a rise in out-of-province buyers, mainly from Ontario, who come seeking greater housing affordability. Average sale prices in Atlantic Canada could increase between five to 20 per cent next year.

Although the pandemic has brought about many unexpected changes, Canadians appear to still be feeling confident about real estate. Forty-nine per cent of respondents in an online Leger survey conducted for RE/MAX Canada believe that Canadian real estate will remain “one of their best investment options in 2022.” This belief was held mostly by homeowners (59 per cent) and less by non-owners (34 per cent), which includes renters, those not looking to buy and buyers currently looking to purchase.

An equal percentage of respondents (49 per cent) said that they are confident that the Canadian real estate market will remain steady next year.

“Canadians recognize the value and investment potential in their homes,” said RE/MAX Canada’s executive vice president, Elton Ash. “However, market challenges such as rising prices and limited supply have impacted local markets from coast-to-coast, causing angst this past year among those looking to get into the market and those hoping to move up in it.”

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