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The cost of homes in Greater Vancouver are expected to keep rising through the rest of 2021.

In its House Price Survey for Q3-2021, Royal LePage forecasted that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will grow 15 per cent in Q4-2021 compared to the same period last year. This prediction is consistent with the brokerage’s projections published in July.

The aggregate price, and all other aggregate pricing in the report, was calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types using data from Royal LePage’s sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions. This includes both resale and new build homes.

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“With no major relief to the inventory shortage on the horizon, I expect strong demand will continue to put upward pressure on prices, and that competition will persist through 2022,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager at the Port Moody-based Royal LePage Sterling Realty, in the report.

In Q3-2021, the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver jumped 20.8 per cent annually to $1,221,400. When assessing different housing types, the median price of a single-family detached home increased the most at 23.4 per cent to $1,651,900. For condo housing types, the median price climbed 8.7 per cent yearly to $697,000 in the same business quarter.

Within the City of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home grew 12 per cent annually to $1,326,600 during Q3-2021. In the same timeline, median prices for single-family detached and condos rose 14 per cent and 2.2 per cent to $2,399,600 and $766,800.

Photo: Rohit Tandon / Unsplash

“Vancouver and the surrounding greater region remains firmly in a seller’s market,” said Ryalls. “Although activity showed signs of slowing modestly in the summer and early days of September, the market has picked up again, now that families are back in their usual routines.”

Ryalls noted that competition remains tight in every market segment as a result of low property inventory. The Greater Vancouver region currently has less than 9,000 listings, well below the approximately 15,000 listings needed for the market to be considered as balanced.

Interprovincial migration has also put “further strain” on British Columbia’s housing market, according to Royal LePage. StatsCan reported that the province saw the largest increase in interprovincial migration nationally during 2020-2021, welcoming 34,000 Canadians from out-of-province.

“Supply would essentially need to double in order to meet the current demand,” added Ryalls. “As a result of the shortage, prices continue to rise, forcing some buyers who have been priced out of the single-family detached market to purchase condominiums instead.”

Photo: Matt Wang / Unsplash

On the national level, the aggregate price of a home in Canada jumped 21.4 per cent year-over-year to $749,800 in Q3-2021.

Based on the Royal LePage National House Price Composite — which uses national proprietary property data and information from 62 Canadian real estate markets — the national median price for single-family detached homes and condos also increased. The value of a detached home jumped 25.2 per cent year-over-year to $790,000, while condos saw an annual increase of 13 per cent to $533,600.

In Q4-2021, the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 16 per cent yearly to $771,500, Royal LePage predicts.

“Looking back to the late spring of 2020, the Royal LePage benchmark value of a home was $580,000,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “The subsequent ‘Covid-catalyst’ which drove legions of Canadians to upgrade their living situations, has created a period of exceptional home price growth with real estate values on track to grow 33 per cent by year end.”

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