Photo: Julius Jansson / Unsplash
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has forced real estate markets across Canada to hit ‘pause’ on sales. Still, forecasters remain optimistic that home prices will be able to ride out the widespread disruption caused by the disease until business activity can resume.
In its House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast report published today, brokerage Royal LePage outlined post-pandemic predictions for Greater Vancouver, which, despite a sales surge early in the year, has seen aggregate home prices drop and transactions slow in the region.
During the first quarter of 2020, the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver dipped 2.1 percent year-over-year to $1,083,166. By housing type, bungalows saw the steepest price decline, with median prices dropping 4.2 percent to $1,182,420. The median price for a two-storey home decreased by 1.1 percent year-over-year to $1,402,395, while condominium prices dropped 2.5 percent to a median price of $636,012.
While the region hasn’t quite returned to the 10-year average in home sales, Greater Vancouver was on a path toward an active spring market. Consumer confidence had been growing in light of “healthy” demand within the entry-level and mid-range property segments, an upward trend that was anticipated to prevail as buyers returned to the market from the sidelines.
“Amid COVID-19 concerns, Greater Vancouver’s real estate activity began to slow in mid-March,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker at Royal LePage Sterling Realty, in the report. “While we do not know the duration of the pandemic, demand is still there and waiting for regular market activity to resume.”
In the City of Vancouver, prices were up slightly, with the aggregate price of a home 1.0 percent higher year-over-year to $1,245,608 in Q1. While median condo and bungalow prices decreased, two-storey homes saw a jump of 4.9 percent.
Should the economy begin to get back on track by the end of the second quarter, Royal LePage predicts Greater Vancouver will see a 0.5 percent year-over-year aggregate home price increase, rising to $1,086,800 by the end of 2020. If activity instead resumes in late summer, the area could see an aggregate price decrease of 2.5 percent, dropping the aggregate home price to $1,054,400.
“If consumer confidence is intact when we are able to resume normal market activity, I expect we will see a significant pent up demand and a bump in sales,” said Ryalls.
