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A panel of experts says the Bank of Canada’s next move will be a rate cut, and nearly half expect policymakers to pull the trigger before the year’s end.

Five out of the 12 economists and researchers on the panel agree the Bank of Canada will cut its policy rate, which influences the mortgage market, at its penultimate scheduled announcement for 2019 on October 30th.

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Stephen Brown, Capital Economics’ senior Canada economist, is one of the five experts anticipating an October cut, a move he suggests will be motivated by international pressures.

“Downside risks to Canada’s economic outlook from the deteriorating global backdrop are increasing, but given the recent pick-up in wage growth and improvement in the housing market we expect the Bank to wait one meeting longer before joining the global loosening brigade,” he says.

Brett House, deputy chief economist of Scotiabank also calls for an October cut, having correctly predicted ahead of today’s Bank of Canada announcement that the central bank would stand on the sidelines this time around.

The Bank of Canada revealed this morning that it was holding its policy rate at 1.75 percent for now, and House supports this approach.

“It is prudent for the Bank of Canada to hold off on a cut until it has more information about developments in the Canadian economy and the White House’s next zigs and zags in its trade battles,” he adds.

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