Photo: James Bombales
After a summer of warming activity, the Toronto housing market is about to enter a period of relatively cool sales and prices, according to one big bank.
“Greater Toronto and Hamilton sales prices rose by about 1 percent [in October], while new listings retreated by about 3 percent in both cities,” writes Marc Desormeaux, provincial economist at Scotiabank, in his most recent note.
Sales were down 1.1 percent month-over-month in October, in what Desormeaux says is the start of a slower period for the market.
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“The [GTA market] appears to be stabilizing after a summer recovery, though we’ll continue to monitor sales activity…following the October drop,” he writes.
But he does note that a relatively low level of supply amid strong buyer demand should keep activity from dipping too sharply heading into 2019.
Desormeaux’s forecast echoes that of TD economist Rishi Sondhi, who writes that GTA home sales should “grind higher” in the coming months. Meanwhile, a lack of affordability should keep activity reaching the heights seen in the spring of 2017.
“Strained affordability conditions, exacerbated by rising borrowing costs, will continue to restrain demand,” Sondhi writes.
A different story is playing out in western markets, with greater Vancouver home sales jumping 2 percent month-over-month last month.
“The rise in sales is good news for Greater Vancouver after September’s dip cast some doubt on the market’s recovery from early-year doldrums,” writes Desormeaux. “In and around the city, realigned demand and supply portend more modest price gains than in recent years.”