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The share of regional Canadian housing markets experiencing home price drops in the past half year is at the highest level since the recession, while a handful of cities are seeing growth that flies in the face of a broader trend.

Those are takeaways from a recent National Bank report, which looked at home price movement in the 26 housing markets the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index tracks.

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In October, national home prices declined by 0.4 percent compared to September, according to the monthly index. “Worse, the decline seems to be becoming more widespread,” write National Bank economists Stefane Marion and Jocelyn Paquet in a Canada Watch published this month.

Home prices have fallen in 40 percent of these cities over the past six months, the largest share of cooling markets since 2010.


What’s more, 21 markets are off from their most recent peaks. With prices 10 percent from their May 2016 ceiling, St. Johns, Newfoundland, has fallen the furthest, followed by Barrie, an environ of Toronto where prices are off 7.4 percent compared to the all-time high reached in June last year. Calgary has spent the longest period of time away from its previous peak. Pricing is 5.4 percent shy of the heights reached in August 2014.

The five markets currently peaking are Kingston, Kitchener, Montreal, St. Catharines, and Windsor. Montreal, the largest of these ebullient markets, is shaping up to be one of Canada’s hottest housing markets.

If the Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards’ latest forecast proves correct, Montreal home prices still have some headroom left.

The federation expects the median price of a single-family home in the Greater Montreal Area to climb 4 percent next year, while condo values are anticipated to increase by 3 percent.

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