The Canadian housing market has experienced several months of continued sales growth, in what many experts are calling the end to a policy-induced chill that followed the introduction of a new mortgage stress test earlier this year.
Heading into what is typically a hotter season for the market, many have speculated as to whether activity would continue to warm, or be reined in by rising interest rates.
By all accounts, the market is set to have a strong fall season. For a closer look at what’s in store, Livabl has rounded up 6 charts that put things in perspective.
1. Sales are climbing
What’s going on here: Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows how national home sales have changed over the past 14 years.
The takeaway: After a steep drop at the beginning of 2018, sales have been on an upward trajectory for months, as the market adjusts to new mortgage rules.
2. The Toronto market is performing particularly well
3. Toronto sales are starting to catch up with the 12-month average
What’s going on here: TREB measures actual MLS sales across the GTA against the 12-month moving average.
The takeaway: After spending much of the year well below the 12-month average, sales have started creeping back up, coming in line with the average this summer.
4. It’s still a balanced market — for now
What’s going on here: RBC Economics used CREA data to track the national sales-to-new-listings ratio over the past 14 years. A ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent is considered balanced territory, with readings above and below indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets, respectively.
The takeaway: While the market remains in balanced territory, it has been steadily moving towards sellers’ territory for months.
5. New listings remain stable
What’s going on here: CREA tracked national new listings over the past year, noting that the level remained relatively flat between July and August.
The takeaway: In keeping with the market’s balanced position, new listings have neither risen or fallen dramatically over the past three months.
6. Prices are creeping upwards
What’s going on here: RBC used CREA data to track the national MLS home price index over the past 12 years.
The takeaway: After a dramatic fall in prices in the spring of 2017, things finally started to warm up again this summer, with many industry experts predicting that the trend will continue into the fall.