Economists forecasted a slow start to the year for Toronto’s housing market, and so far their predictions seem to be coming true.
The first two weeks of the year saw both sales and prices drop across the GTA, as the market adjusted to new mortgage rules and an interest rate hike.
Condo sales dropped 21 per cent, while detached house sales fell 20 per cent. “We did anticipate that the GTA market would be off to a slower start in 2018,” Zoocasa managing editor Penelope Graham told BuzzBuzzNews. “With the new mortgage rules, you have people who are hesitant to buy or to list, until things settle down.”
For a more comprehensive understanding of January’s market fluctuations, BuzzBuzzNews has rounded up four charts that should clear things up:
1.Sales fell off a cliff
What’s going on here: Zoocasa tracked GTA home sales across dwelling types over the last two years.
The takeaway: For the first time in months, sales are down across nearly all housing types, with semi-detached houses being the only outlier. Detached home sales are down a whopping 34 per cent in Toronto, and 20 per cent across the GTA.
2. It’s a buyers’ market across the board
What’s going on here: A sales-to-new-listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent is considered a balanced market, while ratios above and below are considered sellers’ and buyers’ markets, respectively.
The takeaway: In Toronto, every dwelling type fell into a buyers’ market in the first two weeks of January, while in the GTA only semi-detached houses remained in balanced territory.
3. Sales are finally below the year-over-year average
What’s going on here: The Toronto Real Estate Board compared current sales with the 12-month moving average.
The takeaway: While sales routinely came in above the year-over-year average in 2017, they fell well below it in the first few weeks of 2018.
4. Prices are taking a hit, too
What’s going on here: TREB compares the current MLS average price with the 12-month moving average since 1995.
The takeaway: Again, after reaching a peaking January 2017, prices have taken a steep dive in January 2018.