After a summer of slumping sales and prices, it seems that Toronto’s housing market has finally balanced out.
Following record-breaking sales in the first few months of the year, the Ontario government introduced its Fair Housing Plan in April. Home prices plummeted over the summer, but are now making their way back up.
In order to better understand these past few months, BuzzBuzzNews has rounded up five charts to put things in perspective.
1. After bottoming out, sales are beginning to climb
What’s going on here: The introduction of Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan in April caused Toronto’s sales to plummet. Now, months later, they’re starting to edge back up again.
The takeaway: According to CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal, the balancing out of the market won’t last long. “Without dealing with the real fundamental issues facing the GTA, these changes are only able to provide temporary relief,” he writes.
2. Prices down from record highs
What’s going on here: GTA home prices are starting to edge back up after a serious summer drop.
The takeaway: According to Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) director of market analysis Jason Mercer, the price rebound means the psychological impact of Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan is fading. “The housing market in the GTA has been impacted by a number of policy changes at the provincial and federal levels,” he writes. “Similar to the track followed in the Greater Vancouver Area, it appears that the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan, including the tax on foreign buyers, is starting to unwind.”
3. Balanced markets across housing types
What’s going on here: A sales-to-new-listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent is considered a balanced market. Here, the ratio of different Toronto property types is tracked over the last two years.
The takeaway: While late-2016 and early-2017 saw a dramatic shift towards a sellers’ market in Toronto, November 2017’s ratio is much more balanced through the first 15 days of the month. Semi-detached houses, condo apartment and condo townhouses all have ratios that indicate a balanced market, while the detached houses ratio has dipped to become a buyers’ market.
4. Condo sales still high, but trending lower
What’s going on here: Market research firm Urbanation has tracked the sales of new construction condos over the last 10 years.
The takeaway: While sales remain high in the GTA, they’re down from the peak recorded in Q1 of 2017. “After closing out 2017 with a record year, the new condo market is poised for moderation in 2018,” writes Urbanation senior VP Shaun Hildebrand. “A more cautious approach for both developers and buyers in the coming months will help to ensure the transition to a more sustainable pace of activity is orderly.”
5. Inventory levels back above average
What’s going on here: 2016 saw historically low levels of inventory in the GTA, as buyers rushed to cash in on the red hot market.
The takeaway: Following a slowing of sales over the summer of 2017, inventory levels have risen past the 10-year average, indicating a more balanced market.
