San Francisco housing Photo: @sage_solar/Flickr

San Francisco-area home prices continued to trend upward in the fall, according to Case-Shiller’s latest Home Price Index for the five-country metro region.

Over a 12-month period that ended in November 2015, Bay Area house prices in the “high-price tier” — the upper third of home sales by price — rose 11 percent.

Case-Shiller chart Chart: Paragon via Case-Shiller

The above chart, which was created by Paragon Real Estate Group using the Case-Shiller House Price Index data, notes that Bay Area house prices have appreciated by 60 percent since the recovery began in 2012. According to Paragon’s Patrick Carlisle, almost all the significant price growth has occurred in the spring selling season, “when the supply and demand dynamic has been most out of whack, and the competition situation between buyers for new listings has been the most ferocious.”

Case-Shiller chart 2 Chart: Paragon via Case-Shiller

And so, Carlisle says that the next real indication of where the Bay Area housing market is headed will come after the beginning of the 2016 spring selling season (which can begin as early as mid-late February), and sales begin to close in March and April.

“We will see then if the recent international and national financial markets volatility or other issues (affordability, high-tech boom adjustments, etc.) will affect the direction of our market,” Carlisle stated.

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