CMHC predictions 2013

The CMHC is predicting more moderation in the housing market as starts stabilize over the rest of the year and then see a modest uptick in 2014 thanks to improvements in employment, economic growth and net migration.

For 2013, housing starts are expected to range range between 177,100 to 188,500 units in 2013, with a point forecast of 182,800 units, down from the 214,827 units tallied for red-hot 2012. By 2014, housing starts are expected to range from 165,600 to 207,600 units, with a point forecast of 186,600 units.

“CMHC expects single-detached units and housing units built in the Western provinces to account for a higher share of total housing starts over the forecast horizon,” said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist for CMHC.

As far as sales are concerned, 2013 is expected to see between 431,600 to 466,200 units in 2013, with a point forecast of 448,900 units, an amount very much in line with the 453,372 in 2012. In 2014, sales are expected to range from 437,700 to 497,500 units, with an increase in the point forecast to 467,600 units.

Prices should continue to see small boosts as well: the average MLS  price is expected to be between $369,100 and $380,500 in 2013 and between $371,700 and $393,900 in 2014. The point forecast for the average MLS price suggests a 2.7 per cent gain to $374,800 in 2013 and a 2.1 per cent increase to $382,800 in 2014.

Photo: DenisGiles/Flickr

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