Forecasting the real estate market is kind of like forecasting the weather; you have to make adjustments as conditions change.

That’s just what the Canadian Real Estate Association has done with its newest 2012 and 2013 forecasts. CREA previously predicted generally stable resale housing activity in 2012 with slight declines in British Columbia and Ontario offsetting growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

However, the revised forecast reflects the accelerated sales activity in Alberta and Saskatchewan and a faster than anticipated slowdown in B.C.

According to CREA President Wayne Moen, “National activity over spring months was stronger than anticipated.  This shows clearly how the continuation of low interest rates is keeping home ownership affordable and within reach.”

National resale housing activity is now forecast to go up 3.8 per cent from 2011 and is expected to reach 475,000 units. Sales for 2013 are forecast to decline by 1.1 per cent to 470,200 units. It is expected that Ontario will see the biggest decline in activity next year.

As for the national average home price, it is forecast to rise by 2.2 per cent to $370,7000 in 2012. This is up 1.1 per cent from the previous forecast.

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