(Source: The Wall Street Journal)
The economic crisis began with a housing downturn that spread to housing finance, and then to the entire economy in the form of a deep recession. Stability in the financial sector and growth in the economy will not resume until there is recovery in housing. But what will constitute a recovery in housing?
While the news this week about an uptick in home prices and sales in some markets is encouraging, those anticipating a return to pre-bubble price levels will find the wait to be a long one. In some markets it might not happen for a decade or more. Other markets may never return to pre-crisis prices—certainly not when adjusted for inflation.
Unfortunately, many public policy proposals have been aimed at propping up home prices, or at least cushioning their fall. Nothing could be more counterproductive.
The housing downturn was a classic bursting of an asset bubble. The suddenness of the collapse was frightening and, for a time, prices seemed to be in a free-fall, especially in over-heated areas in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. But the cure for falling prices in the aftermath of a speculative bubble is, paradoxically, to allow them to fall.
Read the full article by Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr. “Signs of Life in the Housing Market” in the Wall Street Journal (July 30, 2009).